9 PM Update:
Main severe weather threat now pushing East out of Arkansas. Still a few isolated storms around through this evening, generally ending before Midnight.
5:30 PM Update:
Tornado Watch issued until 2 AM for most of Arkansas. A tornado watch means conditions are favorable for storms that may produce a tornado
3 PM Update:
Nothing showing up on radar in Arkansas as of 3PM. Storms are moving East through Missouri with wind damage reported around Springfield. Winds were estimated to 70 MPH. Storms will rapidly increase across Arkansas after 4 PM.
12 PM Update:
Updated tornado probabilities from the Storm Prediction Center. Highest tornado threat for Eastern and Southeast Arkansas through this evening, although still a risk for Central Arkansas as storms begin to fire up.
Given the strong wind field expected to develop ahead of the cold front, an enhanced threat of strong to violent tornadoes is indicated mainly for Southeast Arkansas. Below is the area at greatest risk for EF2 or stronger tornadoes.
11 AM Update:
Storms still on track to take shape late this afternoon into this evening. Here is the latest high resolution computer model forecast for 6 PM today showing a line of storms rapidly intensifying over Central Arkansas.
Wednesday Severe Weather Discussion:
A fast moving cold front will sweep into Arkansas Wednesday Afternoon bringing the risk of some strong to severe thunderstorms. Most of Wednesday will be dry, but storms will begin to fire up along the cold front by late afternoon. Storms should initiate around 4-5 PM and increase in coverage and intensity through the early evening.
The storms will organize into a line as they push Eastward through Eastern and Southeast Arkansas later in the evening. The main threat from the storms will be strong wind gusts, however, a brief large hail and tornado threat may take shape as the storms first begin to intensify over Central Arkansas.
Later in the evening, a squall line will rapidly push across Eastern and Southeast Arkansas. Most storms will likely exit the State by about 10 PM
The Storm Prediction Center has placed most of Central Arkansas under a SLIGHT risk for severe weather for Wednesday. (Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Outlook for Wednesday Oct 17th – issued Tue Oct 16 1230PM)
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